You would have Thunk

Its' as simple as this, Canada has oil, the U.S. needs oil.  You’d think it would be easy from there.

On Friday the U.S. President released a formal finding that there was enough available oil in the world to allow western countries to mount a boycott of Iranian oil, as a means of dissuading Tehran from pursuing its nuclear ambitions.  It was a crucial ruling and a close-run thing. If western countries truly desire to place the squeeze on Iran’s ruling parties, as they have repeatedly said you would think in turn they would be able to make the decision to cut off from the accepted oil exports from Iran.  Yet not the case.  The manner I see this is a very mishandled campaign could just push prices higher, which in turn helps Tehran more than it would hurt.  On the other hand, it could lead to a slowdown in the West just as the U.S. appears to be crawling out of its recession.  The decision depends to a large degree on an assessment of Saudi Arabia’s ability to make up for displaced Iranian oil.  The White House believes the Saudis have the capacity, yet no one really is sure of that.  Here is Obama, racking his brain for a way out of the country’s persistent oil dilemma, and next to him is Stephen Harper, who’s dripping in the stuff and eager to sell.

·         Harper: Mr. President, can we discuss the Keystone XL pipeline issue for a moment?

·         Obama: Not now Stephen, if you don’t mind.  I have to figure out this oil supply mess.

The pipeline decision was delayed until after the presidential election so Obama wouldn’t have to offend his environmental supporters while he seeks re-election.  Leaders make decisions and I feel that one that I admire has pulled a whammy.  None of the excuses offered for the delay holds water.  The chosen route for the project through a valuable aquifer was no great threat, the project had passed crucial safety tests, and the area is already criss crossed by a large network of other pipelines.  It was all about politics.  However, the result of the decisions is the quandary now facing the president is that the U.S. needs oil one way or another.  Whatever the long-range attractions of reducing dependency on fossil fuels, the world is not going to switch to befouls and solar power overnight and a secure supply of oil will remain crucial for decades to come.  The source of that fuel is critical to the U.S.  The problem with Iran exemplifies and demonstrates that within the absence of a friendly, secure, reliable supplier.  Washington is forced to look to places like Saudi Arabia.  After Canada and Mexico, the top suppliers to the U.S. are Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, and Iraq.  Coupled to that is not one real democracy in the lot, all of them with serious political and stability issues.  In addition, none of them right next door.

Canada, on the other hand, is just across the border, is a close friend and ally of the U.S., and is both ready and eager to ensure a reliable increase in supply.  However, Washington’s willingness to play games with the Keystone project has only served to increase Ottawa’s awareness of the need to find other customers. As Prime Minister Harper stated, “Look, I’m a strong and firm believer in the economic importance of our relationship, the security importance, and the importance of the United States and the world.”  Harper told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.  “But we cannot take this to the point where we are creating risk and significant economic penalty to the Canadian economy.”  And to not diversify to Asia, when Asia is a growing part of the world, just simply makes no sense.”  Prime Minister Harper noted that in years past Canada has been willing to tie itself to the U.S. market.  However, the Keystone decision demonstrated the danger of this in two ways: the price of Canadian oil suffers because Canada is seen as a “captive supplier” to the U.S. and Canada’s economic health is put in jeopardy by the fact that the U.S. could some day stop importing the oil.  Unfortunately, Obama could have avoided all this by accepting the self-evident benefit to the U.S. of getting Keystone built as quickly as possible.  Instead, he has to juggle Saudi capacity against Iranian sanctions, and the long-term implications of a risky sanctions plan that could blow up in the face of its supporters.

Relying on his friends in Canada would have been so much easier, but rather the price of a campaign is much more important – yet they don’t mention this within the news.  I find that there is an injustice which is kept hidden underground (pardon the pun).  So often and meanwhile what has hit the papers is sanctions on Iran just which is off the press, go figure.